Karl Rove has written his opinion in The Wall Street Journal on the changes that have taken place to effectively campaign for president. Mr. Rove impresses upon us that some new rules have changed the paradigm but some old rules still apply. Summarizing:
New Rules 
- Television ads don’t matter as much as they used to.
Voters are discounting advertising. They may be blocking out ads, relying more on personal exposure, information from social networks, alternative information sources like talk radio and the Internet, and local media coverage.
- Technology allows a candidate to raise money quickly and inexpensively.
The Internet dramatically shortens the gap between political success and raising money. Effective fundraising can be a mouse-click away.
- Debates are a great way to come on late and make up for a lack of resources and endorsements.
Mike Huckabee was an asterisk for most of the campaign. But he is an excellent debater with a terrific sense of humor who hit his stride, especially in the debates, just as activists and party opinion leaders were starting to pay close attention before the Iowa caucuses.
Old Rules
- Appealing to one part of the party isn’t enough.
Mr. Huckabee rode the evangelical wave to victory in Iowa. For a candidate to win, he must appeal to more than one constituency group — even one as large as social conservatives.
In each party, the winner will be the person who can draw support from the greatest number of diverse elements within the party. Being strong in just one or two of those communities is not enough.
- Adapt or die.
Sometimes you can’t run the campaign you want — but if you’re lucky, you run the campaign you need. Sen. McCain was the GOP front-runner in late 2006 and early 2007 — and then his campaign fell apart. It was broke. Top aides bailed out. His condition was widely thought to be fatal. Yet those who squandered his money, whittled away at his strengths and tied him up in a campaign style that was uncomfortable did him a favor by forcing Mr. McCain back into a lean, guerrilla-style campaign. That kind of campaign served him well in New Hampshire in 2000 and did so again in 2008.
- Bad exit polls shape coverage.
On primary day, before voting closed in New Hampshire, the exit poll predicted Mr. McCain would win handily. I asked members of the press how close Mr. Romney needed to run for it to still be a horse race. Most said four or five points. The race ended with Mr. McCain at 31% and Mr. Romney at 26%. Yet for most of the evening, while pundits instructed viewers and reporters drafted stories, Mr. McCain’s lead was between 7% and 10%. It only closed late as communities along the Massachusetts border came in.
What would the coverage have sounded like if Mr. McCain’s margin had been 5% while TV droned on and stories were being locked in? Mr. Romney would have fared better in the coverage.
- Win early somewhere or run darned close.
Rudy Giuliani’s novel strategy was to ignore the results of the first six contests but win the seventh. You can avoid an early state or two, but staying out of more early contests suggests to voters a candidate is uncomfortable competing. In politics, like sports, winning builds on itself — and so does losing.
- Joining the race a lot later than everyone else doesn’t work.
Getting in late means too few workers, talkers, phoners, askers, walkers and raisers to turn your personality and agenda, no matter how attractive, into victory.
- Money still cannot substitute for likability or message or broad appeal.
Neither Mr. McCain’s financial strength last spring nor Mr. Romney’s large personal wealth nor Congressman Ron Paul’s record-breaking Internet fundraising blitzes have guaranteed victory. As important as it is, there is a lot more to politics than simply raising money.
- Ideas still matter.
Both Democrats and Republicans are in spirited and, at times, heated contests. The difference is Democrats are running a nasty race that has as its subtext race and gender. The Republican race, on the other hand, is a serious debate about serious ideas.
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In the end, we imagine a Republican can retain the White House, as a Romney or McCain would be much more desireable than a Clinton (s) or Obama. Indeed!

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