The pundits are spewing out poll information as if it were the gospel of each election, yet we have an equal chance of predicting a horse race, maybe better if solid analysis of the current racing form is applied.
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Barron’s Online, based on its own historical data, is bullish on Republicans keeping both houses of Congress this election cycle. Here is what Barron’s has to say:
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Based on a race-by-race examination of campaign-finance data — suggests that the GOP will hang on to both chambers, at least nominally. We expect the Republican majority in the House to fall by eight seats, to 224 of the chamber’s 435. At the very worst, our analysis suggests, the party’s loss could be as large as 14 seats, leaving a one-seat majority. But that is still a far cry from the 20-seat loss some are predicting. In the Senate, with 100 seats, we see the GOP winding up with 52, down three.
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We studied every single race — all 435 House seats and 33 in the Senate — and based our predictions about the outcome in almost every race on which candidate had the largest campaign war chest, a sign of superior grass-roots support. We ignore the polls.
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Is our method reliable? It certainly has been in the past. Using it in the 2002 and 2004 congressional races, we bucked conventional wisdom and correctly predicted GOP gains both years. Look at House races back to 1972 and you’ll find the candidate with the most money has won about 93% of the time. And that’s closer to 98% in more recent years, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Polls can be far less reliable. Remember, they all but declared John Kerry president on Election Day 2004.
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Tracking each candidate’s funding is “exceptionally valuable because it tells you who has support,” says William Morgan, executive director of the renowned Mid-West Political Science Association in Bloomington, Ind. The cognoscenti, he says, give the most money to the candidate they believe has a good chance of winning.
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There are plenty of naysayers and numbers to demonstrate Barron’s is too bullish on the election outcome. We believe Republican retention of a majority in both houses will be based on huge grass roots efforts, an advertising blitz and willingness of Republicans to put aside their differences, hold their noses, and vote Republican. It’s alot to depend on.
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November 2nd, 2010 at 2:45 am
I must confess that over the last two weeks of this kind of particularly unhinged election spiral, despite the brief mental refreshment I experienced with the Restoring Sanity Rally about Saturday, I have once for a second time begun to suss out suitable caves in the Northwest Territories of Canada to i can retire and reduce the intellectual and meaning potato sack sprint for the bottom that is each of our national political conversation.