In the closing days of the election, it was an article of faith among the pundits that Gov. Sarah Palin had become a drag on the Republican ticket. Whether because of the “Troopergate” investigation or her primetime network interviews, Mrs. Palin’s popularity with the public declined considerably. Once hailed as an inspired pick, Sen. John McCain’s choice of the unknown Alaskan governor was generally viewed as a missed opportunity.

So now that we have piles of exit polling data to sift through, what can we say about Mrs. Palin’s effect on the election?

Asked if she was “a factor” in their vote, 60% said yes, while 33% said no. Yet of those who said Mrs. Palin was a factor, 56% voted for Mr. McCain, while 43% voted for Mr. Obama. Even among independent voters (a group Mr. McCain lost by eight points) she was a net vote-getter for the Republican ticket among those independents who said Mrs. Palin was a factor.

Mrs. Palin, however, didn’t come through with one big group of voters — those who supported Sen. Hillary Clinton in the primaries. In the immediate aftermath of Mrs. Clinton’s defeat, polls suggested that a good portion of these voters were ready to support the Republican ticket. It must have seemed too tantalizing a prospect for the McCain campaign to pass up by choosing a man as a running mate. Yet, in the end, Mrs. Palin didn’t seal the deal with Hillary voters, who went for Mr. Obama 83% to 16%.

On other important voting blocs, such as white women, gun owners and Evangelicals, the McCain-Palin ticket performed about the same as the Bush-Cheney team in 2004.

The conclusion? Mrs. Palin failed to win the election for Mr. McCain, but that’s setting the bar awfully high. Given the headwinds, Mr. McCain perhaps was lucky to do as well as he did — and his showing might well have been worse without Mrs. Palin on the ticket.

Source: Blake Dvorak – Politcal Diary [Subscription]